Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
