A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the reason for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As the England international curled home his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
